17 October 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Arc of the Moral Universe

"Since 1970, every time asset values have risen above 520% of households disposable income (the dashed line in the chart) then the US has been in a bubble and a subsequent crash has followed.  This has simply meant asset values growing much faster than households income or households capability to sustain those price increases. The depth of each crash has been relative to the overshoot of asset values on the upside."

Chris Hamilton, Bubble-nomics

It seems as though when I procrastinate long enough someone eventually does a very good job of making a point for something that is important, and does it in a way that I may not have been able to do as well otherwise.

A favorite refrain of financiers, fraudsters, politicians and their defense lawyers is to pose the questions in defense of a lie or a fraud in such a way as to blur the lines of recognition, so as to create room for a reasonable doubt.    Indeed, the boldest among them will ask those would listen to them to question reality itself.   What does 'is' really mean, for example.

Chris Hamilton of Economica as noted in the second quote above has come up with a very clever way to help to put a little rigor around the concept of financial asset bubbles. Obviously the crux of the problem is to find some metric, some reasonable and relatively stable or significant relationship against which to measure changes in one value and compare them over time.

Chris has chosen disposable income, which is actually pretty darn good.  And since the link between disposable income and net worth has a suggestion of correlation, and not just causation, the shoe seems to fit fairly well. 

One might rephrase it as 'when is the economy unusually asset rich, and relatively income poor.'  There are other standards one might use, but modern fictionalization economic measures like money supply has knocked a few of them for a loop.  And I am sure that there are economists aplenty who can cast a doubt on any of them.

Truth can become a very slippery thing, especially when a conspiracy of silence, or  the subornation of perjury, in support of a lie  becomes especially lucrative to the point of being de rigueur, a kind of badge of office among the elite, and sadly even among those who are sworn to uphold justice, and to protect the innocent. 

This next bubble and crash cycle is going to put a tear in the social fabric, and may even leave a mark.   The natives are clearly getting restless and their sahibs may be in danger of losing control.

What does it profit a man, indeed.

Have a pleasant evening.

Thomas Frank: What Happened To the American Dream and US Democratic Politics

“Corruption is uniquely reprehensible in a democracy because it violates the system's first principle, which we all learned back in the sunshiny days of elementary school: that the government exists to serve the public, not particular companies or individuals or even elected officials.”

Thomas Frank

16 October 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - On the Wings of a Dove

"Interesting that the papers of record regret that they worked the Weinstein story, but never felt like they had enough to actually publish it.   Apparently they had a lower standard for the publication of the Iraqi WMDs and Russian hacking stories.   It makes one wonder what other big stories they are sitting on, that they can't quite bring themselves to publish, for whatever reason."

Malcolm, a reader

There was an obvious bear raid in the precious metals today.

We are nearing peak fraud, at least for this latest iteration of bubbles and busts.

A good man can speak truths most profoundly with his silences.   A wicked man tells lies with his.   A sin against the Spirit will not be forgiven.

What is a sin against the Spirit?   What is Truth?   Pilate asked that question of Truth itself. as truth stood before him in silence, and then turned and washed his hands of it. 

And so he condemned not the man, but himself, with his silence, while the Man redeemed the whole world, with his.

Have a pleasant evening.

13 October 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Clothed With the Sun

"Ubi caritas et amor, Deus ibi est."
Where kindness and love are, God is there.

4th century antiphon, melody 9th century

"Hear now this, O people, foolish and without hearts; who have eyes and do not see; and have ears, but do not hear."

Jeremiah 5:21

"And there appeared a great wonder in the heavens, a woman clothed with the sun, and the moon under her feet, and upon her head a crown of twelve stars."

Revelation 12:1

Gold and silver caught a big today, even as stocks continued their slanted push up against trend resistance.

I have some optimism for the price of gold here, as it seems to draw the usual rally off the Non-Farm Payrolls bottom, all other things being equal. There is intermediate trend resistance at 1340 that may prove to be quite a test for any breakout attempts. Silver is moving with gold in this. If at some point it becomes a flight to safety, I am not sure how well they will pace each other. Otherwise, silver remains more 'lively' than gold in its movements.

As I recall we are entering a December contract period which may have some energy behind it, especially if we have already passed the late seasonal low for precious metals.

Today is the 100th anniversary of the sixth apparition, and the 'miracle of the sun,' in Fátima, Portugal on October 13, 1917.

Have a very pleasant weekend.

12 October 2017

Joe Biden Reveals the Democrats' Losing Strategy For 2020

Joe Biden pivots to be the voice of anti-populism to counter the populists Trump and Sanders.

After all, someone has to stand up for corporate America.  And make the establishment-groomed Kamala Harris look like a champion of the people.