24 September 2016

Autumn Is Here

The Foliage Network

Still far too early for leaves to be changing colours, except for the ones that have fallen because of the mini-drought we had here that was broken when the cold front went through last night.  And those went right from brown to ground.  lol.

Today is just a gorgeous early autumnal day: crisp and sunny. Its always a little cooler up here in the foothills.

The queen is out with visiting relatives from Ohio, and my son is camping and canoeing with friends at the Delaware Water Gap. Dolly and I are just fixing some things around the house and enjoying the weather. And watching the Cubs vs. Cardinals.

All the windows are open, and the local farm stands are heavy with ripe fruits and vegetables.

I think in many ways that Autumn is my favorite season.

23 September 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - No One Left To Blame

"Und das große Feuer in Soho
sieben Kinder und ein Greis -
in der Menge Mackie Messer, den
man nicht fragt und der nichts weiss.

Und die minderjährige Witwe
deren Namen jeder weiss
wachte auf und war geschändet -
Mackie, welches war dein Preis?"

Berthold Brecht, Die Moritat von Mackie Messer, 1928

“It is my position that the fundamental problem with American media isn’t that it’s too conservative or too liberal, but that it’s directly connected to elite opinion and reflects those interests and concerns.”

Michael Arria, Medium Blue

Gold and silver ended the day largely unchanged, digesting the rally that followed the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

Gold and silver both look to be coiling for a move.  They may go lower again to touch that support line, and if they do the point at which they find support may be revealing.

Or not.  We may finally get the long anticipated breakout higher.

The elite are running out of excuses, and others to blame.  That does not mean they will cease their efforts to excuse themselves and shift the responsibility for their mistakes to others.

They may just double down, as they have been doing off and on since before the turn of this century.

What does it profit a man, if he gains the whole world, but loses himself?

In the end, that is the only real tragedy.

Have a very pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - And It Is

Stocks gave a little back after a week of record gains.

Next week will have a little more economic news.

Have a pleasant weekend.

22 September 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Been Down, Looking Up - Autumn Leaves

If you did not pick up on the completely obvious, gold and silver were smacked down lower ahead of the FOMC meeting so that when assets, including the precious metals, rallied after the Fed did nothing they would not challenge key overhead, breakout resistance.

So today we saw some additional timid rallying in the metals, with gold being held below 1350 and silver below 20ish.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Instant Complacency

Instant complacency.

Just add liquidity.

Have a pleasant evening.

21 September 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - As Old As Babel

"Every sovereign nation has the right to legislate its own debt terms, and the coming currency re-alignments and debt write-downs will be much more than mere 'haircuts.' There is no point in devaluing, unless 'to excess' – that is, by enough to actually change trade and production patterns.

That is why Franklin Roosevelt devalued the US dollar by 41% against gold in 1933, raising its official price from $20 to $35 an ounce. And to avoid raising the U.S. debt burden proportionally, he annulled the “gold clause” indexing payment of bank loans to the price of gold. This is where the political fight will occur today – over the payment of debt in currencies that are devalued."

Michael Hudson, The Coming European Debt Wars

"Whatever truths or fables you may find in a thousand books, it is all a tower of Babel, unless love holds it together."

Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe

I liked this quote from Michael Hudson today, although the beginning of the very first sentence is patently not supported by history.  Few sovereign nations have the 'right' to legislate their own debt terms to their external creditors, or even to issue their own fiat currency in any manner that they may choose without limitation, to the extent that they wish to have commerce with any other nations and groups not under their direct political control.

In this case, modern monetarists tend to conflate the power of exceptional 'force' and with the rights of any and all sovereigns.  In other words, might can make right, but only in exceptional circumstances.  A nation that is large and powerful enough certainly does have the ability to enforce some of its judgements, and not just those regarding debt and money, on the rest of the world, at least for some period of time that it is tolerated.

This is not incidental in any way, but cuts to the very heart of the matter.  Power to make arbitrary declarations of value by a central authority and have them accepted generally are the ultimate reach in political power.  This is the goal of every tyrant, every despot, and every empire, even if they do not consider themselves to be so as they justify this sort of power in their own minds.

Putting that qualification to Hudson's quote aside, and most intelligent people will agree that the power to set valuations cannot be purely arbitrary and without limit, he makes a very good observation that the devaluation of unsustainable debt loads and currencies overhangs by half measure has not been historically effective.

The Western nations, through their central banks and some of their financial dreadnought institutions, are seeking to devalue their currencies and increase the money supplies in what they consider to be a controlled manner.   And as most human endeavours seem to go, they are attempting to manage its effects and the distributions of its benefits and consequences, the rewards to those whom they favour, and the deprivations to those whom they do not.

They have been at it for some time.   This is a portion of what is called the 'currency wars.'

And to that end, they have been colluding to varying degrees over the price of gold, silver, oil, and a number of other essential, internationally traded items, including global workforce compensation and composition, in order to engineer their holy, grail, a financial solution to the problems of debt and national sovereignty within a largely unrestrained capitalist globalized financial system overseen by an 'enlightened few.'

This may seem more appropriate for Hudson to say, as I believe he adheres to more of a Marxist interpretation  of economics than I do, being largely 'unschooled' in the literal sense.   But to the close observer this does seem to be the point of the recently very fashionable system of globalisation and conforming of nations, even if by force, to a singular template of governance that certain people within the Western powers have decided is optimal for everyone.

That there is dissent from this model, even significantly so within their own society and peoples, cannot be denied.  The recent upheavals in the UK with Brexit and in the US with the national elections is unmistakable, even though the mainstream media and the courtiers to the established political class may be in firm denial.  And there is no doubt that they are, and even remarkably so.

How this ends up I have no idea.  But this does appear to be like a modern 'tower of Babel,'

I do know that they have a very hard time to admit their mistakes, and the flaws in their reasoning.  The usual response is to keep blaming the limitations of their power, and to seek to keep extending their control more and more, further and further.

They fall into what I have called 'the credibility trap.'  They cannot admit their error without impeaching their own behaviour and superiority, their right to rule as a superior person.

This latest experiment in empire building also appears to be failing for all the human reasons of pride and overreach and short term personal greed that one has come to expect from this sort of self-defined, progressively naked power grab designed to bring other people into line with a certain perspective fueled by a particularly insular form of thought.

One thing is for certain is that if you judge it by its works,  there is no love, no compassion for others, and the common good of most ordinary people, in it.  Even at its best, its seemingly high minded goals are as self-serving and self-referential as the justification used by any pillagers of a weaker people.

And gold seems to be at least one of the perennial canaries in the coal mine, again.

Well, it certainly will prove to be an interesting time for most.  Let's see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.